Coloquio
The Economic Cost of Punishing Crime and the Economic Consequences of Impunity
J.R. Iglesias,Instituto de Física Universidade Federal do Río Grande do Sul, Brazil
Crime is an economically relevant activity. After the seminal paper of
G. Becker [1] the decision of committing a felony depends of a utility
analysis where the gain, or booty, is compared with the risk
(probability of being apprehended) and burden (fines and prison) of the
punishment. From the point of view of the society, it seems that some
level of crime should be tolerated as the economic charge of the
repression of small crimes may be higher than the losses due to this
criminal activity. But being tolerant with small crimes can be a
stimulus for heavier criminality and the cost of repression would
highly increase after a period of leniency[2]. Here we present
simulations based on the model of Becker, considering different
hypothesis, the original one that assumes that the probability of
punishment is a constant, and a more realistic situation where this
probability is a
function of the importance of the loot but also of the financial power
of the offender. Another important factor is the moral impediment, or
honesty, of the economic agents. This can be also be simulated as an
economic barrier that increases the “cost” of committing a felony. This
barrier is a characteristic of the individual, due to educational,
psychological or religious reasons, but it also depends on the
perception the individual has of the probability of being punished if
he perpetrates a criminal act. Then, this perception will change as a
function of the ratio between punished and committed crimes. To avoid
this feeling of impunity that can increase the criminal activity, we
investigate the minimum level of law enforcement required to keep crime
within acceptable limits.
A sharp phase transition from high to very low criminality is observed
as a function of the probability of punishment. We also analyze other
economic consequences of criminality, as the effects on economic
growth, and also changes of the Gini coefficient (inequality in the
wealth distribution) as a result of criminal activity.
Ojo: El Abstract esta en inglés, pero la charla será en castellano.